Most agree that the single most important economic event of the twentieth century is the Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 (sometimes referred to as Hawley-Smoot) has often been cited by historians as one of the leading causes of the Great Depression. After heated debate and controversy over the course of its passage through Congress, the tariff had swift and sweeping effects. Within two years, the volume of U.S. trade was cut nearly in half. The Tariff has also been blamed for poisoning international trade relations by triggering a wave of foreign tariff increases that put world commerce on a downward spiral. At a minimum, the Tariff is believed to have deepened a depression; at worst, it is believed to have turned a minor recession into the worst depression in modern history.

This site takes an in-depth look at the Tariff and its effects on international trade retaliation. Specifically, this site takes a counterfactual approach, closely examining the various points at which the bill might have failed as it progressed from the House, through the Senate, through conference, and to the President. The site also considers whether, if the Tariff had not passed, foreign nations would have taken retaliatory action against the United States, thereby effectively putting a halt to international trade.

This site contains two academic articles prepared by Josephine Liu, who tackles the overall likelihood that the bill may have failed, and Brian Leung, who approaches the international retaliation aspect. Both are second-year students at the University of Virginia School of Law. Also available are several political cartoons related to the issue, a timeline documenting the actual historical events surrounding the Tariff, and various tools that will help you in understanding the plausibility and effects of this counterfactual.